Anahita Jannesar Niria,* Steven E. Zhangb Gregory A. Poelzerc, , Jan Rosenkranzd, Maria Petterssone, Yousef Ghorbanig
a Department of Civil, Environmental, and Natural Resource Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, SE- 97187 Luleå, Sweden.
b Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth St. Ottawa, ON K1A 0G1. Canada.
c Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Luleå University of Technology, SE-97187 Luleå, Sweden.
d Department of Civil, Environmental, and Natural Resource Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, SE- 97187 Luleå, Sweden.
e Department of Social Sciences, Technology and Arts, Luleå University of Technology, SE-97187 Luleå, Sweden.
f Department of Civil, Environmental, and Natural Resource Engineering, Luleå University of Technology, SE- 97187 Luleå, Sweden.
g University of Lincoln, Joseph Banks Laboratories, Green Lane, Lincoln, Lincolnshire LN6 7DL-United Kingdom.
*Corresponding author.
Email addresses: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (A. J. Niri), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (S.E Zhang), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (G.A. Poelzer), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (J. Rosenkranz), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (M. Pettersson), This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (Y. Ghorbani)
Abstract
The global desire to combat the increasing menace of climate change to the environment, human life, and biodiversity continues to grow. A global transition from the current “brown economy” to a “green economy” has been perceived as an ineluctable strategy to deal with climate change and its global devastating impacts. Sustainable technologies such as energy storage systems, wind turbines, and solar panels, all of which facilitate the move towards a low-carbon future are key components of this transition.
Large-scale electrification imposes new requirements for batteries as energy storage technologies and leads to an increasing demand for the mining of battery minerals. It is forecasted that the future global demand for these minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite will soar 26- times, 6-times, 12-times, and 9-times respectively by 2050 in comparison with that in 2021. The battery minerals are distributed geographically, and their extraction is highly concentrated in developing countries, where difficulties are encountered in tackling environmental and social consequences exacerbated by the expansion of mining operations. However, the transition to a low-carbon economy necessitates contemplating the different capabilities of both developed and developing countries to map the battery mineral supply chains onto the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
The aim of this study is to assess the global production trends of battery minerals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese, tin, vanadium, magnesium, and tantalum) and their supply sustainability in a data-driven manner. Production forecasting of battery minerals is important to anticipate the dynamics of energy supply security and adequately plan for greater adoption of green energy technologies. Although complementary avenues for sourcing battery minerals, such as secondary resources and recycling exist, they are doubtful to become major suppliers in the short term, because these sources are limited by the amount of primary material in current circulation, which highlights the need to accurately forecast primary production.
In our analysis, we make use of several time series forecasting methods such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique and Holt’s method for short/medium/long-term predictions using the global production data on battery minerals for the last 4 decades. The forecasts, coupled with geopolitical, socio-environmental, and techno-economic influences on the market, reinforce the concern regarding battery minerals supply sustainability.
This study provides a baseline consideration to clarify the possibilities and opportunities of the transition to a greener economy. Consequently, it provides a scenario baseline to anticipate the socio-economic impacts of implemented approaches and policies towards an expansion of battery minerals supply.